CHINA'S DECISION LAST WEEK TO SUSPEND DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE WEST AFRICAN NATION OF SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE HAS AGAIN DRAWN ATTENTION TO BEIJING'S COMPETITION WITH TAIWAN. V-O-A LOOKS INTO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS DIPLOMATIC BATTLE THAT U-S EXPERTS BELIEVE CHINA IS LIKELY TO WIN.WHEN SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT NELSON MANDELA ANNOUNCED LAST NOVEMBER THAT HIS COUNTRY IS SWITCHING DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION TO CHINA, DIPLOMATS DESCRIBED THE MOVE AS A STAGGERING BLOW TO TAIWAN.
THE DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY, JAMES REARDON-ANDERSON, SAYS SOUTH AFRICA WAS THE LAST BIG COUNTRY TO DROP TAIWAN IN FAVOR OF CHINA.
TAIWAN HAD HELD ON TO THREE REASONABLY SIGNIFICANT COUNTRIES -- SOUTH KOREA, SAUDI ARABIA AND SOUTH AFRICA. AND SOUTH AFRICA WAS THE LAST OF THOSE THREE TO GO. AND WHEN IT WENT, THAT WAS A SIGNIFICANT BLOW.
WHAT FOLLOWED WAS A RUSH OF DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY, IN WHICH BEIJING TRIED TO BUILD WHAT IT SAW AS FAVORABLE MOMENTUM. TAIPEI, ON THE OTHER HAND, PULLED OUT ALL THE STOPS TO LIMIT LOSSES.
SINCE NOVEMBER, TAIWANESE FOREIGN MINISTER JOHN CHANG AND HIS DEPUTIES VISITED AFRICA AT LEAST THREE TIMES. CHINA COUNTERED BY SENDING TO THE CONTINENT FOREIGN MINISTER QIAN QICHEN AND PRIME MINISTER LI PENG.
BEIJING REGARDS TAIWAN AS A RENEGADE PROVINCE AND REFUSES TO HAVE DIPLOMATIC TIES WITH COUNTRIES THAT RECOGNIZE IT. ABOUT 30 NATIONS -- EIGHT OF THEM IN AFRICA -- NOW HAVE FORMAL RELATIONS WITH TAIWAN. BUT THE HEAD OF AFRICA STUDIES AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, WILLIAM ZARTMAN, BELIEVES THEIR NUMBER WILL PROBABLY DWINDLE, AS CHINA'S ECONOMIC AND MILITARY MIGHT CONTINUES TO GROW.
IN THE LONG RUN, THE TENDENCY, OF COURSE, WILL GO TO MAINLAND CHINA BECAUSE IT'S A LARGER MARKET AND BECAUSE IT WILL GRADUALLY BE ABLE TO SUPPLY THINGS TO MEET AFRICAN COUNTRIES' NEEDS. THE POLITICAL ADVANTAGES OF DEALING WITH THE LARGEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD WEIGH IN WHEN GLOBAL ISSUES ARE INVOLVED.
TAIWAN, HOWEVER, WOULD NOT GIVE UP WITHOUT A FIGHT. EARLIER THIS YEAR, IT PULLED OFF A DIPLOMATIC UPSET IN THE WEST AFRICAN ISLAND NATION OF SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS THAT 30 MILLION DOLLARS IN TAIWANESE AID PLAYED A ROLE IN CONVINCING THE CASH-STRAPPED REPUBLIC TO ESTABLISH FORMAL DIPLOMATIC TIES WITH TAIWAN.
AFTER ATTEMPTS TO PERSUADE SAO TOME TO REVERSE ITS DECISION FAILED, CHINA SUSPENDED ITS DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE COUNTRY LAST WEEK.
PROFESSOR REARDON-ANDERSON OF GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY SAYS THE EXAMPLE OF SAO TOME DEMONSTRATES HOW TAIWAN CAN TRANSFORM ITS ECONOMIC CLOUT INTO DIPLOMATIC GAIN.
THEY (TAIWAN) HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF SUCCESSES, BOTH IN AFRICA AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA IN GAINING THE DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT OF SMALLER COUNTRIES. TAIWAN HAS THE FINANCIAL AND TRADE POWER TO MAKE A VERY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON A SELECT NUMBER OF SMALL COUNTRIES, SUCH AS LIBERIA, IN WEST AFRICA, AND OTHER SMALL COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AMERICA. SO WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BRING THIS POWER TO BEAR, THEY HAVE GAINED DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION.
BUT DIPLOMATIC ONE-UPMANSHIP ASIDE, ANALYSTS BELIEVE THAT CHINA AND TAIWAN ARE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS. THE CHIEF AFRICA EXPERT AT WASHINGTON'S CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, CONSTANCE FREEMAN, SAYS THE TWO COUNTRIES' DESIRE TO STAKE OUT THEIR POSITIONS ON THE WORLD MARKET SHOULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED.
AFRICA INCREASINGLY IS BEING VIEWED AS A GOOD PLACE TO DO BUSINESS, FILLED WITH ALL KINDS OF RESOURCES, AND A POTENTIALLY GROWING MARKET. AND SO IT IS NOT JUST TAIWAN AND CHINA THAT ARE COMPETING IN AFRICA, BUT MALAYSIA IS THERE AND INDONESIA IS THERE.
EXPERTS SAY REGARDLESS OF ITS DIPLOMATIC STANDING, TAIWAN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ECONOMIC ROLE IN AFRICA. SOUTH AFRICAN OFFICIALS HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THEY ARE EAGER TO MAINTAIN ALL KINDS OF COOPERATION WITH THE ISLAND SHORT OF FORMAL DIPLOMATIC TIES. ABOUT 350 TAIWANESE FIRMS CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN SOUTH AFRICA. AND ECONOMISTS SAY THESE COMPANIES ARE LIKELY TO GO ON WITH BUSINESS AS USUAL.
13-Jul-97
Source: Voice of America