The Impact of AIDS on Africa
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This document is being made available by the Population Information
Network (POPIN) Gopher of the United Nations Population Division,
Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.
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AIDS has a devastating toll in Africa
but population growth rates remain high
The Population Division of the Department for Economic and Social
Information and Policy Analysis of the United Nations Secretariat
biennially prepares the official United Nations population estimates
and projections for all countries of the world. The most recent set
of population data is that from the 1994 Revision, which was released
on 27 July 1994.
The impact of AIDS was considered for those developing countries
in which the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroprevalence was
estimated to be above one per cent in the adult population. AIDS was
incorporated into the demographic estimates and projections for
fifteen sub-Saharan African countries and one Asian country: Benin,
Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire,
Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, the United Republic of
Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, plus Thailand.
The 1994 Revision shows a devastating toll from AIDS, with
respect to population loss and mortality. For example, Uganda and
Kenya, by 2005, will experience about 1.5 million additional deaths each
due to AIDS. Also severely affected will be Zaire (1.2 million
additional deaths), United Republic of Tanzania (1.1 million) and
Thailand (0.9 million). The population of the 15 African countries in
the year 2005 is expected to be 3.8 per cent less than what would have
been expected in the absence of AIDS. The impact of AIDS is most
severe in Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe, which exhibit the highest HIV
seroprevalence levels. The 2005 populations of Zimbabwe and Zambia
will each be 6.9 per cent less than expectations in the absence of AIDS,
and the population of Uganda will be 6.1 per cent less.
However, the 1994 Revision reveals, that in spite of the toll,
population growth rates will remain high and positive. The population
of the 15 African countries is projected to reach 291.8 million by 2005,
more than double its size only 25 years earlier,.
The crude death rate in 1990-1995 for these 15 hardest-hit African
countries is 15.4 deaths per 1000; it would have been 13.7 without AIDS.
The crude death rate in Thailand is estimated at 6.1 per 1000 in 1990-
1995, whereas it would have been 5.9 (or 3.7 per cent lower) without
AIDS. The average life expectancy at birth, for the 15 African
countries in total is estimated at 50 years in 1990-1995, in comparison
to the 53 years that would have been expected without AIDS. As a
result of the AIDS epidemic, loss of potential years of life of 5 years
or more has already occurred in four countries -- Zimbabwe, Zambia,
Kenya and Uganda. In Zimbabwe, life expectancy at birth is currently
estimated at 54 years, which is 7 years lower than what would have
been without AIDS. In Zambia, the corresponding figures are 49 years
with AIDS and 56 years without.
The AIDS-induced death differential is projected to widen rapidly
during the next decade. By 2000-2005, Zimbabwe's crude death rate will
be 12.9 per 1000, which is almost twice as high as the crude death rate
of 6.6 per 1000 that would have been projected in the absence of AIDS.
The United Nations projects that by 2000-2005, a new born child in
Zimbabwe will have an expected life span of 51 years with AIDS;
however, that child may have lived 66 years in the absence of AIDS.
In Zambia, the corresponding figures are 47 years and 60 years
respectively.
Although the 1994 Revision highlights the demographic impact of
AIDS, the epidemic will also have a substantial effect on social
organization and economic development. Coupled with the demand for
resources induced by continued population growth, the strain induced
by the AIDS epidemic will present difficult challenges in the next
decades.