A FORMER SENIOR U-S TRADE OFFICIAL SAYS THE WORLD WILL 
SOON BE DOMINATED BY A SET OF RISING POWERS KNOWN AS THE BIG TEN 
EMERGING MARKETS, INCLUDING CHINA, INDIA, AND BRAZIL. THE FORMER 
OFFICIAL SAYS THE UNITED STATES IS UN-PREPARED FOR THIS FUTURE 
AND NEEDS TO CARRY OUT REFORMS OR RISK LOSING ITS ROLE AS THE 
WORLD'S DOMINANT ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL POWER.

FORMER UNDERSECRETARY OF COMMERCE JEFFREY GARTEN OUTLINES 
HIS VIEW OF THE NEXT CENTURY IN HIS NEW BOOK CALLED "THE BIG 
TEN".  THE TITLE REFERS TO 10 NATIONS HE PREDICTS WILL EMERGE AS 
POTENTIAL WORLD POWERS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THEY INCLUDE THREE IN
LATIN AMERICA -- MEXICO, BRAZIL, AND ARGENTINA --  AND FOUR IN 
ASIA -- INDIA, INDONESIA, CHINA, AND SOUTH KOREA, IN ADDITION TO 
TURKEY, POLAND, AND SOUTH AFRICA.

         THEY REPRESENT AN HISTORICALLY UNPRECEDENTED PHENOMENON.
         THAT IS THE RISE OF SO MANY COUNTRIES AT ONE TIME. WE 
         HAVE SEEN THE RISE OF TWO OR THREE ... GERMANY, JAPAN, 
         EVEN THE UNITED STATES ... BUT NEVER SO MANY COUNTRIES 
         IN SO MANY DIFFERENT REGIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY.

MR. GARTEN, NOW DEAN OF THE YALE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT,
SAYS THE EMERGENCE OF THESE MARKETS NOT ONLY THREATENS THE UNITED
STATES' DOMINANCE IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, BUT ALSO COULD POSE 
NEW CHALLENGES TO WORLD ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STABILITY. HE 
SAYS HE IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH HOW EACH OF THESE EMERGING
MARKETS WILL COPE WITH THE OFTEN CONFLICTING DEMANDS FOR CHANGE 
IN THEIR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS.

         THE CLASH BETWEEN THE OPENINGS OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEMS 
         AND THE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS IS IN MY VIEW A TREMENDOUS 
         UNCERTAINTY. LONG TERM I THINK IT WILL WORK, BUT I DO 
         NOT KNOW HOW LONG THE LONG TERM IS, AND I WOULD SAY THAT
         OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS WE ARE IN FOR SOME REAL 
         VOLCANOES, AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A TREMENDOUS 
         CHALLENGE TO U-S FOREIGN AND TRADE POLICY.

MR. GARTEN SINGLES OUT INDONESIA AS ONE OF THE MOST VOLATILE 
COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD IN THIS RESPECT. THE ECONOMIST POINTS OUT
INDONESIA HAS THE FOURTH-LARGEST POPULATION IN THE WORLD AND ONE 
PERSON HAS RULED SINCE THE MID-1960'S, YET THERE IS NO PLAN FOR 
SUCCESSION EVEN THOUGH ITS LEADER, PRESIDENT SUHARTO IS IN HIS 
MID-70'S.

BUT MR. GARTEN'S BOOK FOCUSES MORE ON HOW THE UNITED STATES 
SHOULD CHANGE TO MEET THESE NEW CHALLENGES HE IS FORECASTING. HE
URGES DEEP REFORM IN FOUR AREAS. 

HE SAYS, NEW DOMESTIC ECONOMIC POLICIES, NEED TO BE DEVELOPED TO 
COPE WITH INCREASED INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION -- HE CALLS FOR A 
MORE VIGOROUS, TRADE-DRIVEN FOREIGN POLICY -- HIGHER EDUCATION 
FOCUSSED MORE ON INTERNATIONAL ISSUES AND SKILLS -- AND HE SAYS 
CORPORATIONS MUST PREPARE STRATEGIES AND TRAIN NEW EXECUTIVES IF 
THEY ARE TO CONTINUE AS LEADERS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY.

MR. GARTEN SAYS A FIRST STEP IN MOVING FORWARD WITH THESE REFORMS
IS TO ACKNOWLEDGE SOME OF THE UNITED STATES' WEAKNESSES, 
PARTICULARLY THOSE OF THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL LEADERS.

         IT IS DIFFICULT TO EXAGGERATE HOW LITTLE AWARENESS OF 
         MOST OF THESE ISSUES OUR CONGRESS HAS. PEOPLE ARE BEING
         ELECTED FOR ALL KINDS OF REASONS, BUT CERTAINLY 
         INTERNATIONAL SOPHISTICATION DOES NOT EVEN POP UP ON THE
         RADAR SCREEN. AND THIS IS THE GREAT IRONY THAT AT A 
         TIME WHEN THE OUR ECONOMY HAS BECOME SO TIED TO THE 
         WORLD OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS ARE INCREASINGLY PAROCHIAL 
         AND LOCALLY FOCUSED.

MR. GARTEN SAYS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES THE 
NEXT FEW DECADES WILL OFFER A COMBINATION OF UN-PRECEDENTED 
OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS. THE OPPORTUNITIES INCLUDE MORE THAN A 
TRILLION-DOLLARS IN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING 
NATIONS. THE RISKS ARE TIED TO WHAT HE SEES AS AN INCREASINGLY 
INTERDEPENDENT GLOBAL ECONOMY WHICH COULD FACE MASSIVE 
INSTABILITY IF ITS MAJOR PLAYERS ARE NOT PREPARED FOR THE CHANGES
AHEAD. 

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