Forecasts of Longevity Among European Populations
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TITLE: No.21 - Upper-age longevity in low-mortality countries: a
dissenting view
Lincoln H. Day
Canberra,1990
ABSTRACT
Current forecasts of longevity among European populations (both in
Europe and overseas) are unanimously for further increases, particularly
at the uppermost ages. These forecasts are based on one or the other of
three assumptions: (i) an almost mechanistic continuation of current
downward trends in mortality, (ii) improvements in the prevention of
disease and trauma, and (iii) improvements in therapy. These assumptions
are, in turn, predicated on: (i) further development in science and its
application, (ii) improved access to services and care, and (iii)
changes in lifestyle.
Not all of these can necessarily be relied upon to take place to the
extent assumed by those who forecast continued improvement. Moreover,
those who make such forecasts are leaving out of account certain
elements in the equation that could have a counterbalancing effect,
e.g.: (i) the possibility of heightened virulence in some disease
organisms, (ii) the possibility of new diseases, (iii) worsened
environmental conditions, (iv) increased stress.
Contrary to expectations, mortality among the elderly in European
populations may well stop declining and commence increasing within
another decade .
or two - partly because of differences between the
current generation of old people and those who will succeed them, and
partly because of the allocation of social resources. In contrast to
those who will follow, today's elderly: (i) are biological survivors of
periods of higher mortality, (ii) are emotional survivors of two world
wars, depression, massive social change, (iii) have had less exposure to
certain deleterious environmental conditions the unhealthful
consequences of which take a long time to manifest themselves, (iv) have
benefitted from the allocation of social resources in ways unlikely to
be continued when old people become a higher proportion of the total.
Neither the ageing of European populations nor their decrease in
numbers is likely to be as extreme as is commonly projected. Nor are
these societies' general conditions of life likely to be adversely
affected by either the numbers of elderly or their share of the total
population. Far greater importance can be expected to attach to: (i) the
physical and mental condition of the elderly themselves, and (ii) the
political, economic, environmental, and social conditions in the
societies of which they are a part.
[Presented at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
conference on "Future Changes in Population Age Structures", Sopron,
Hungary, 18-21 October 1988.
Slightly revised version forthcoming in Wolfgang Lutz (ed.),
"Demographic Futures in Europe and North America", Laxenburg, Austria:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.]
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end of record.