If the United States is to remain a superpower into the next century, it will have to drop the pretense of being "Mr. Nice Guy." So says Ray S. Cline, former Deputy Director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, and now chairman of the U.S. Global Strategy Council (USGSC).
In a commercial paperback book just released, Cline reports that changes in global population distribution are moving world centers of power away from the U.S. and Europe. The publication, called The Power of Nations in the 1990s: A Strategic Assess- ment, was released early in 1995 by the University Press of America.
It examines the relative power of the world's largest countries, a consequence, in the author's view, of a combination of specific national characteristics. According to Cline, national power is a product of a country's geographic size, its population growth, national resources and industry, military organization, strategy and ambitions.
Of these factors, however, population is the most important because it positively affects all others. Says the former intelligence chief, "It is the sense of community among human beings that identifies the nation-state and infuses it with life. People exploit the raw economic resources of the territory they live in and develop the political and social traditions that shape national cultures. The spirit and competence of the individual human beings in a society, in the long run, may count as much as or more than the concrete and material resources a nation possesses. Population size is clearly a major element in the international perceptions of whether or not a country constitutes a critical mass in terms of national power."
Thus, except in special cases, it is the most populous nations who will dominate the world in the next century. "It is hard in normal cases to think of nations with a population of less than 20 million as having truly treat power in their own right, independent of the interests or actions of larger nations. A few -- for example, Israel (4 million), New Zealand (3 million), and Singapore (2 million) -- have a disproportionate influence in international affairs because of some special circumstance, such as advantageous strategic location or worldwide commercial activity," says the publication. However, it is the 23 countries with the largest populations that will be "auto- matically powerful" in coming years. Those countries include the Peoples Republic of China, India, Brazil, Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt, Bangladesh, Russia, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines, Iran, Turkey, Thailand, and Ethiopia.
Ironically, Cline's book was released just months after the United Nations International Conference on Population and Development was held in Cairo, at which time U.S. and European leaders made extraordinary efforts to convince policy makers from Africa, Asia and Latin America that the developing regions will never gain sufficient strength to command a favorable distribution of wealth, and that they should act promptly and systematically to reduce births.
This concept is strongly contradicted by the CIA veteran, who advises that population growth in less-developed countries is the key to their political development and national independence.
Cline, who began his intelligence career in the early 1940s with the Office of Strategic Services, the forerunner of the CIA, rose to become the CIA's Deputy Director for Intelligence during the 1960s. He headed the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research in the Nixon administration, and has been awarded the CIA's Distinguished Intelligence Medal and Career Intelligence Medal.
"Americans must at long last face up to geopolitical verities," Cline advises in his new book. "It is easy to recognize that the United States and the whole Western Hemisphere are outclassed by the great Eurasian-African landmass in terms of territory, economic resources, and population. To maintain access to resources and friends, Americans must have bases abroad, air power, and, above all, the mobility and power of a superior three-ocean navy."
The book contends that Americans can no longer afford a foreign policy based on "friendly" persuasion. As the population of the south grows in relation to the north, it will become much more difficult for the U.S. to act as "a world policeman," Cline predicts. "In the face of determined hostility by any government, the United States must rely primarily on strength, not goodwill, for security."