In August of 1990, the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA) released an unclassified report on "Youth
Deficits: An Emerging Population Problem." The subject
matter of the report was limited to economics and the
economic implications of dwindling numbers in the west.
Its introduction states:
"Because youth deficits are unique in modern history,
the full range and magnitude of potential problems are
not yet clear. Nevertheless, on the basis of the
experience of countries that have already begun to feel
the effects of this demographic phenomenon,
youth-deficit countries could confront several
interrelated sets of problems."
"Labor problems will occur in two ways. The most
immediate impact will result from an insufficient pool
of entry-level personnel. In 29 developed and
developing countries this pool will decrease by 35 to
40 million people -- 9 to 12 percent -- over the next
two decades. The most severely affected countries in
Western Europe and Japan will see 25- to 35-percent
declines.
"...Problems are likely to become even more severe over
the longer term. By the second decade of the 21st
century, almost all deficit countries will experience
declines in absolute numbers."
"A population trend that portends new societal stress
is beginning to emerge in a number of countries around
the globe -- the development of age structures with
unprecedented low numbers of young adults. Since the
early 1970s, the average number of children born to
women in nearly every developed country has fallen
below the number of children required for a population
to 'replace' itself. The persistence of low fertility
means that successive infant cohorts become smaller,
eventually resulting in a population with a small
proportion of young adults. In 1980,l there were no
"youth deficit" countries, which we define as having
less than 15 percent of their population in the young
adult age group (15 to 24 years old), among countries
with a population of 5 million or more. By 1985,
however, seven countries faced such deficits and by the
end of the 1980s, nine more emerged. On the basis of
the number of births over the last two decades, we
anticipate youth deficits in at least 29 countries --
including almost all industrialized countries and a
number of key developing countries -- by the year
2010."
The CIA report only vaguely hints at the
implications of the trend, stating that "youth
deficits" might be an indication of severe or chronic
labor shortages among low birthrate nations, as well as
the probability of population decline in the near
future.
"Prior to World War II, population growth was
considered a sign of a healthy society, and low-growth
countries were alarmed at the situation they
confronted. In the postwar years, however, growth
became viewed as a threat and zero growth was the
demographic goal. The 1990s are likely to bring this
full circle as the consequences of youth deficits
become more evident.
The CIA notes, for instance:
"Chronic and potentially several labor shortages are
likely to occur over the next two decades and beyond.
Based on current demographic tends, problems will
become increasingly evident during the 1990s in Western
Europe and Japan and during the first decade of the
21st century in the Pacific Rim and Eastern Europe --
possibly at a time when economic reforms begun during
the 1990s are beginning to gain momentum.